OCM.01. 12/16/22 - 12/23/22

Word of the week: #FOLLOW

Summary: Last week's on-chain view has several good insights: Arbitrum is still trendy and wallets’ activities could be informative trading insights, same with Fantom and Andre; For the upcoming week, there are several notable tokens and two notable chains; The number of stablecoins held by smart money wallets has barely changed from the previous week; risk-taking mindset is still prevalent.

PART A: NEXT WEEK TRENDS

1. WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WEEKLY CHART

Chart on December 19th, 2022 - Successfully tested 16k2xx.

Following the price movement since December 19, 2022, when Macroeconomic news were published one after another and did not support the overall inflation situation, the weekly chart formed a bearded candle. According to the Fibonacci ratio, the weekly frame has formed a beard withdrawing candle, breaking the 0.5 limit and moving towards 0.382 and 0.236 on the Fibonacci scale. If the demand fails to keep BTC's price line at these two levels when the market digests bad macroeconomic news, BTC may move to test the previous support at15k4xx.

Chart on December 23, 2022 - successfully tested the 16k2xx support and expected a mini recovery to the 17k8xx resistance.

After the market digested all the negative macro news, the demand appeared from the 16k2xx support area very quickly pushing the price back to the 16k8xx area with a fluctuation range of ±3%, forming a candle showing the weakening of the supply force and the balance in the supply/demand force. This shows that market sentiment has been gradually accepting and familiar with upcoming predictable monetary and fiscal policy, and if there is no extreme news such as collapse of FTX, Luna, or bankruptcy Fud of Genesis... then the market will expect a recovery to the 17k8xx area.

BTC chart weekly frame December 23, 2022 (16:40 - GMT+7): The range of fluctuations in the weekly frame is 16k4xx - 17k3xx

We can continue to observe the supply/demand force in this area to determine the overall structure of the price line for determining the next trend.

2. MACRO AND STABLECOIN MINT/BURN

2.1. Macro

Last week's macro had an impact on the market but not much with BTC fluctuations from 1% - 3%, through Macroeconomic Index such as US consumer confidence, EIA, real GDP, number of depositors, unemployment application.

In the next 7 days from December 24, 2022 to December 30, 2022, we will follow 2 important news:

Tuesday Dec 27 @ 23pm: API - US Crude Oil Inventories (reflecting production status - which is relevant to consumer use).

Thursday, December 29 @ 4:30am: The number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the US.

If these Macro news do not have any major impact on the market, BTC may have a slight recovery, however micro factors relating to FUD can still affect the price movement.

2.2. Stablecoin mint/burn into the market

There is no unusual data this week, Datafi will update in the next report.

3. PSYCHOLOGY OF SMART MONEY

This week, the proportion of stablecoins in smart money wallets accounted for 30% unchanged from last week (~29.8%) showing that the psychology of smart money wallets this week did not change much compared to the previous week: money flow still in a state of rest at the end of the year.

This is understandable as we are approaching the end of 2022. At times near major holidays such as Christmas and New Year, it is also often the period to close NAV (net asset value), the general sentiment of investors. Both individual investors and institutional investors will reduce activity and start to return after the holiday.

Chart measuring the proportion of stablecoins in smart money wallets

Source: Nansen

4. CONCLUSION

Based on news

We've had a lot of bad news. The price line of BTC is also gradually forming a buy zone with a range of 15k6xx - 18k3xx. If there is more bad news this week but the impact is not as large as the case of FTX, then the possibility that BTC will not drop further.

Based on on-chain

Smart money sentiment is supporting the recovery trend of the market when the capital flow (from stablecoins) from them has been circulated back to the market.

Based on TA & Macro/Micro

The market is fluctuating in an accumulation pattern. Although the BTC chart shows many large selling volumes in response to the news, the current price of BTC only fluctuates within a range of <±10%, showing a weakening in supply, as well as strong momentum. Demand actively supports the price when it is in the ideal price zone.

The current market is expected to experience sideways until the end of the New Year 2023, because the money flow has been withdrawn to summarize year-end as well as cashout for shopping needs at the end and the beginning of a year.

PART B: OUTSTANDING ECOSYSTEMS

1. Ecosystems with Highest Inflow

In the past 7 days, while the top 10 chains with the largest TVL in the market have experienced a decrease in TVL, Aptos is attracting the attention of money flow - ranking in the top 1 in terms of TVL growth %.

TVL Change

Source: Defilama

Reason for increasing TVL is the money coming from PancakeSwap (the biggest DEX on BSC) as PancakeSwap is expanding their service to Aptos. Currently, the main growth on Aptos also comes from PancakeSwap.

In the past week the TVL of this protocol rose 60%, increasing 179% in the last 30 days.

TVL Rating

Source: Defilama

Currently, PancakeSwap's APR is quite high, especially stablecoin pairs like lzUSDC-lzUSDT (15.3%) or ceUSDC-ceUSDT (16.83%). This is a very attractive APR for stablecoin farming because currently the APR for stablecoins on other protocols like Aave, Compound only stops at 3% - 4%.

2. Signs of Speculative Flow

Fantom - There are some positive signs that hint speculative money inflow on this ecosystem.

Datafi has been watching Andre's wallet since he announced his return to be the advisor of Fantom, now seeing signs of activity from this wallet recently.

• On Nov 30, 2022, Andre started depositing 50M $FTM (~10M USD) in Geist. Then he borrowed $3M USDC and deposited back in the protocol to get the APY difference.
• Notably, from Dec 21, 2022 until now, Andre started buying some tokens like $BOO, $BEETS, $GEIST, $MMY, $BRUSH. Here are some tokens on the Fantom ecosystem that Datafi thinks you should put in your watchlist to observe as Andre may be an insider trading of the above projects.

Transactions from Andre Cronje's personal wallet

Source: Debank

One more observation from us is: There are currently 2 major protocols on Fantom that are having the largest TVL growth in the last 30 days:

• Stargate Finance ($STG) - a bridge protocol
• Geist - a lending protocol

The increase of TVL on a Bridge protocol shows that there exists the need for money transactions via bridges to the Fantom ecosystem. Rising TVL in Lending could be a sign of short-term speculative demand (pledging assets as collaterals to borrow stablecoins for buying tokens).

Top Dapps/Protocols about TVL on Fantom ecosystem

Source: Defillama

Note: Andre Cronje is the founder of YFi and co-founder of Fantom. Andre is very influential in the DeFi community. After many times declaring quitting the market, in early November 2022 he said to return as an advisor for Fantom. Many communities have lost their faith in Andre, so we can actually only provide information that favors short-term speculative demand.

3. Ecosystems with Highest Outflow

According to data from DefiLlama, in the past week, Solana was the ecosystem with the largest percentage decrease in TVL (falling 19.68%).

TVL change

Source: Data from DefiLlama

Reason for TVL drop is mainly due to the FTX event and Sam continues making negative impacts on this ecosystem. Besides, the general market flooded in red color is also another factor causing the TVL of Solana ecosystem to decrease significantly.

So will Solana grow again?

• Speaking of Mcap/TVL index, Solana scores 18.4, the highest among major chains. This shows the money has fled from the Solana ecosystem, but the price of $SOL has not yet reacted. This is a bad signal for Solana's price.
• An optimistic sign is that the devs are active again in the Solana ecosystem. However, this only causes a long-term effect on the survival of the system, but hardly makes an immediate impact on the current Solana price.

Solana's Github commit chart (shows how active the devs are)

Source: Cryptomiso

PART C: NOTABLE TOKENS

1. REVIEW 7D

1.1. DataFish

We caught an "insider trading" goldfish in the Arbitrum aquarium. Its information is:

• Wallet address: 0xa688bc5e676325cc5fc891ac48fe442f6298a432
• According to an account on Twitter (CryptoCondom), this is the CMO of Arbitrum. However, there is no evidence to properly verify the identity of this wallet. You should only take this as a reference and explore further from this clue yourself.
• Previously, around Dec 3 while preparing for our workshop, our team discovered that money was poured into $MAGIC, and this fish was collecting $MAGIC back then. On Dec 12, the fish sold $MAGIC when the token was listed on Binance. How interesting it is.
• Today on December 23, 2022: The fish seems to know something so that it spent 0.38 ETH to buy 28 Arbitrum Odyssey NFT as shown below.

1.2. Balance of Smart Money

The table below shows the amount of tokens being accumulated/discarded by Smart Money wallets from their balances. Balance decrease means they gradually withdraw tokens to do other tasks (staking, farming, etc.), while balance increase means they accumulate more.

Calculation Unit: Million USD

Source: Data from Nansen, compiled and processed by Datafi

Please note:

- $MKR: BlockTower Capital actually provides liquidity for MKR (~$6.7M), which means this is a good on-chain signal instead of an exit from a Smart Money.

- $NXM ranked first is actually just an unwrapping and was returned back to Parafi Capital's wallet, not at all an accumulation. This $NXM is now wrapped back.

1.3. Smart Money Netflow on CEXs

Note: This table usually shows insights about the tokens with the most net withdrawals/net deposits by smart money. Netflow to CEXs being positive means tokens are deposited on CEXs (possibly to be sold) more than withdrawn from CEXs (an accumulation sign).

Calculation Unit: Million USD

Source: Data from Nansen, compiled and processed by Datafi

From this chart, notable tokens will be further reflected in the following tables. But for $MATIC, it was sold the most by Smart Money in the past week, you may want to research more to know the reason.

1.4. Netflow on CEXs

To find out the top tokens with notable net deposits/net withdrawals on CEXs last week, we processed the following data: Netflow Exchange (from top 20 tokens with the most change), Trading Volume and Market Cap of one token. They partly reflect the short-term increase/decrease in the price of that token. Then, we filtered out the top 10 most notable tokens by 2 groups: Tokens with Negative Netflow and Token with Positive Netflow.

Calculation Unit: Million USD

Source: Data from Nansen, compiled and processed by Datafi

From the table above, it can be seen that the most accumulated token from CEXs last week was $SHIB. Here's our breakdown of this number:

$SHIB is being collected by:

• Top Balance wallets: especially the top 5 wallets in the past month have accumulated an additional $51M $SHIB.
• In addition, the top 5 most active-accumulating wallets bought $5.2M more than the top  5 most active sellers (buying more than selling).

The strange thing is Smart Money tend to sell. A wallet labeled “Smart Dex Trader” transferred $1.6M SHIB (accounting for 5% of the $SHIB this wallet holds) to Crypto.com. Most of these $SHIB were collected by this wallet on Oct 20 at the $0.00001 price range. If this is a dumping, this wallet is losing 20%. However, the number of Top Balances who accumulate is 31.9 times the number of those who sell, so the overall trend of $SHIB is still accumulation.

As seen above, besides $SHIB, some tokens are likely to have no insight for next week including:

$CRO:

• In the past week there was large net depositing: 400M $CRO on Crypto.com.
• These are all wallets of the CRO exchange, perhaps just an action to compensate for the token burnt on December 14, 2022, not an act of dumping.

$LUNC and $BAT:

• Deposited on Coinbase and transferred to new wallets, there will be less selling pressure.
• This is probably an usual act of changing wallets.

1.5. Net Buying/Net Selling on DEXs

The data below removed MEV bot transactions. Its showing negative index means net selling and positive means net buying.

Calculation Unit: Million USD

Source: Data from Dune, compiled and processed by Datafi

Last week, net selling (averagely $5M) was much larger than net buying (averagely $0.4M), showing a clear selling trend on decentralized exchanges (DEXs).

In addition, $BNX after the big crash in early December (3rd to 4th) has shown a need to buy again in the recent 1-2 weeks. This is also the most bought token on the DEX of the week.

Besides, a GameFi project recently is attracting gamers in wolfgame ($WOOL), the project's NFT collection recently has a high transaction volume on NFT exchanges such as Opensea, Blur, etc. However, the project token showed the opposite thing as the net trading volume was a net sale of $16M this week. To note for those who play this game, you should not speculate on the project tokens when you see signs of net selling.

2. CONCLUSION

Two groups of tokens to watch out for next week:

2.1. Tokens/NFTs with Good On-chain Signals

Shiba ($SHIB): Showing signs of increasing balance from top wallets.

Maker($MKR): BlockTower Capital provides liquidity for MKR (~$6.7M). This is a long-term hold of the fund.

Chiliz ($CHZ): There are signs of net withdrawals from CEXs and increased balances from smart money.

Plutus ($PLS): Benefiting from the warming Arbitrum ecosystem, among the top tokens purchased on DEXs this week.

Arbitrum Odyssey NFT: Copy trading from Arbitrum Alpha wallet (0xa68) mentioned in Datafi-sh

PaintSwap ($BRUSH), WigoSwap ($WIGO), MummyFinance ($MMY):

• Copy trading from Andre, small buy size from $2000 - $4000
• are protocols with low pricing (under $5m) and innovative products like Paintswap which is an NFT exchange with an FDMC of only $3.4m and a USP feature like NFT swap

SpookySwap ($BOO), Beethoven ($BEETS):

• Copy trading from Andre, there is a big buy size around $40000
• These are the 2 biggest Dex on TVL on Fantom ecosystem.

2.2. Tokens with bad on-chain signals:

$DYDX

There was a sell-off from unstaked wallets from dYdX: Safety Module over the past week causing the price to drop 13%. The current discharge pressure is not much.

It should be noted that the wallet address related to Wintermute received 9.12M $DYDX (~$11M) from the Safety Module but did not release the goods and still tends to collect more $DYDX.

There are two contradictory events affecting the price of $DYDX in the near term: the dYdX chain launch and the massive $DYDX unlock in February.

$GALA

According to on-chain data, the act of pushing $GALA to the exchange is an OTC sale of a wallet related to the project team, through the Genesis OTC channel.

The signal is quite bad when GALA's big fish are constantly dropping their stocks for the past several weeks.

$GRT

The last major $GRT unlock payment was paid on December 17-20, possibly creating temporary selling pressure.

The amount of unlock has been recorded as 150M $GRT (~$8.3M) but there is no sign of discharge.

$MATIC

Wintermute Trading transferred $2M $MATIC to Coinbase.

The Polygon Foundation (Investment) wallet is distributing tokens to individual wallets.

PART D: ON-CHAIN BEATS

What's hot on-chain beats last week, let's look back with Datafi

(1) Featured articles

Last week there were some interesting articles such as:

C98 mint ~32M $C98. (Ryan's wallet no longer holds C98, moved to Binance monthly)

The last big $GRT unlock has happened

QNT is being accumulated by Wintermute and Orca Capital

Through the New Year, there may be more exciting activities, the team will try to come up with many good songs.

(2) Tools to check on-chain data

Many free on-chain checking tools start charging: Token Terminal, Dune. In which Dune received many criticisms about the package's features.

→ Which tool is free, learn quickly to know what tool you need before they charge.

At the request of many of you, Datafi has published a tutorial on how to use on-chain data on Nansen (basic) - this is an "easy to practice" version for newbies.

(3) On-chain knowledge

On Nansen, how many smart money wallets do you think are really smart? Currently, many wallets are quite small and not smart but still have the label smart money. Datafi is checking, needs longer-term monitoring, see if there is any learning/insight or will share in the following reports.

In addition, when making a report, section C1.2/… above has a lot of data deviations when aggregated from Nansen (same index but Nasen itself has 3 places displaying 3 different results), Datafi has to process more layers to get more accurate results.

In general, each tool has its own inadequacies, you should learn carefully, and when reading on-chain articles on social media, you should be more careful because the poster may also be misunderstood / misused.

(4) Talking on-chain

Communities in Vietnam are starting to share more about on-chain, which is a good sign. However, when a new trend is formed, "opportunists" also appear a lot, readers need to be alert if the on-chain is abused to manipulate a gullible group of objects.

AFTERWORD

The report is not financial investment advice.

📌 Readers please note this regulation: Datafi will permanently lock your account on thedatafi.com as well as other Datafi's social channels if we detect either this 1 or 2 violations:

• Copy/use the information in the report without crediting the source.
• Leaking out the information in the report to avoid paying fees.

The purpose is for us to manage risks on our information and to keep ourselves encouraged.

We sincerely thank all of you for always encouraging our team.

Best regards,