To answer the question of why it's bullish, the DataFi team will analyze two labels highly correlated with the price trend:

Positive Accumulation by Top Holders in HFT

Examining the 30 wallets with the highest netflow in the last 30 days:

All 30 wallets have increased their token holdings by approximately 8.67M HFT (~$2.77M).

Three major Market Makers, including GSR, Wintermute, and Jump Trading, have accumulated a total of 3M HFT.

Within the same group of wallets, when examined by wallet age, DataFi identified a group of Fresh Wallets:

Exclusively holding HFT

Wallets younger than 30 days old

Balances ranging from 300k to 1.6M HFT, all consistently withdrawing from Coinbase during the same timeframe.

=> It is highly likely that these wallets belong to an individual or entity seeking to obscure their accumulation of $HFT. The total balance of this wallet group is 5.69M HFT.

Additionally, the group of wallets younger than 30 days old is the most significant HFT accumulator in the last 30 days. These wallets are all Fresh and have a total inflow of approximately 4.23M HFT. => It is highly likely that these are wallets associated with organizations or individuals with influence over HFT prices, as they deviate from typical retail behavior.

🔥Conclusion: Top holders are quite bullish on HFT as this token is being accumulated by the Fresh Wallet group and major Market Makers.

Market Makers (MM) Re-accumulation

GSR: Continuously accumulating HFT from T2/2023 until now. Current balance is 32.83M HFT ~ $10.6M.

Wintermute and Jump Trading:

T12/2022: Received a total of 46.2M HFT from Treasury and Airdrop wallets.

Distributed 40% of the balance and re-accumulated since late T6/2023 until now.

Current balance = 25.7M HFT (excluding team wallets that have not been accounted for).

Thus, Jump Trading and Wintermute have distributed a considerable amount, but the remaining 25.7M HFT still poses a challenge. The total balance of these three MM is 58.52M HFT ~ 33.4% of the circulating supply.

So, are they pushing the price to distribute?

First, all three MM participated in the Series A round at a price of $0.4/token, indicating they are currently at a 20% loss. This ROI is relatively low compared to previous projects where Jump Trading and Wintermute made the market => Motivation to push the price.

Second, the initial total balance of MM was 46.2M HFT, and the current balance is 58.52 HFT ~ 33.4% of the circulating supply. This suggests they have become more active in controlling the supply => confidence to push the price.

Third, the current daily trading volume of HFT is $5-10M, and the supply on centralized exchanges is ~ 89.2M => To distribute, MM must push the price to stimulate retail demand. The question is, by how much will the price increase:

Phase 1: Balance 46.2M, price increased from $0.28 -> $0.95

Phase 2: Balance 58.5M, the price is currently around $0.28 => DataFi expects the price to grow to $0.95 and beyond.

We have sufficient grounds to believe the price will rise. The next question is, will the MM push the price now?

The market context in Q4/2023 is quite vibrant, as detailed by the Team in https://t.me/c/1814723974/48/

Based on the tokenomics, starting from 5/11/2023, HashFlow will begin vesting for Private Round x3, Seed Round x16, Series A x0.8 => There will be selling pressure from participants in the Seed + Private rounds, and all three MM participated in the Series A round, so October is an opportune time to push the HFT price, aligning with positive points in the option market.

The relatively new MM, GSR, will likely want to push the price to build its reputation, similar to DWF Labs, debuting in a downtrend for easier navigation when the market is on an uptrend. Several projects that GSR is currently making the market for, such as IMX, MASK,.. are showing signs of an uptrend.

Conclusion

Several factors support an HFT price increase. We will use additional technical analysis to further evaluate.